Dying Democracy in Türkiye and Erdoğan's Journey towards Authoritarianism

In recent years, Türkiye has witnessed a dramatic transformation under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Once hailed as a model of democracy in the Muslim world, Türkiye has steadily slid towards authoritarianism, with Erdogan at the helm of this troubling shift.

The Erosion of Democracy

Türkiye’s journey from a functioning democracy to a regime plagued by autocratic tendencies has been both swift and alarming. The country’s Democracy Index score, as compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit, has steadily declined from 5.12 in 2015 to a meager 4.35 in 2023, positioning Türkiye as a “hybrid regime” rather than a true democracy[2]. This decline is further corroborated by Freedom House’s Freedom in the World report, which rates Türkiye as “Not Free” with a dismal score of 32/100[2].

Silencing the Press

One of the most significant indicators of Türkiye’s democratic decay is the dramatic collapse of press freedom. According to the Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders, Türkiye ranks 158th out of 180 countries, making it one of the worst environments for journalists in the world[2]. Erdogan’s government has systematically crushed independent voices, shut down media outlets, and jailed or forced journalists into exile for reporting the truth.

The crackdown on media freedom has been particularly severe since the failed coup attempt in 2016. Erdogan has used this event as a pretext to silence dissent, jailing over 150 journalists and purging 150,000 military officers and civil servants[3]. This widespread suppression of free speech has effectively muzzled criticism of the government and allowed Erdogan to consolidate his power unchecked.

Undermining the Judiciary

Erdogan’s assault on democratic institutions extends to the judiciary. The transformation of the state structure was gradually carried out through constitutional referendums in 2007, 2010, and 2017, introducing changes to the executive and judicial systems[4]. These changes have significantly eroded the independence of the judiciary, turning it into a tool for Erdogan’s political agenda.

The president has publicly defied key institutions such as the Constitutional Court, demonstrating his disregard for the separation of powers[4]. This erosion of judicial independence has left Türkiye’s legal system vulnerable to political manipulation, further undermining the foundations of democracy.

The Rise of Authoritarianism

Erdogan’s presidency has been marked by a clear shift towards a more authoritarian style of government. This transition has been characterized by the personification of political rule, criminalization of opposition, restrictions on freedoms of expression and assembly, and the erosion of the rule of law[4].

Constitutional Changes and Power Consolidation

A pivotal moment in Türkiye’s democratic decline was the constitutional referendum of 2017, which transformed the country’s parliamentary system into a presidential one. This change, which came into effect in 2018, significantly expanded Erdogan’s executive powers and removed crucial checks and balances[8].

Erdogan has used these expanded powers to further centralize authority in his hands. The new system allows him to appoint ministers, vice presidents, and senior judges without parliamentary approval, effectively giving him control over all branches of government[8].

Suppression of Opposition

Erdogan’s regime has been relentless in its efforts to suppress political opposition. A striking example is the treatment of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). In a move widely criticized as politically motivated, numerous democratically elected Kurdish mayors, 58 to be exact, have been unlawfully removed from office and replaced by government-appointed trustees over alleged ties to Kurdish militants[5].

The arrest and imprisonment of opposition leaders have become commonplace. Selahattin Demirtaş, a prominent Kurdish politician and former co-leader of the HDP, was arrested in 2016 on dubious charges. In May 2024, he was sentenced to more than 40 years in prison, with an additional two-and-a-half-year sentence added in July 2024[5]. This harsh treatment of opposition figures sends a clear message about the consequences of challenging Erdogan’s rule.

Exploitation of the 2016 Coup Attempt

The failed coup attempt of July 2016 provided Erdogan with a pretext to accelerate his authoritarian agenda. In the aftermath of the coup, Erdogan declared a state of emergency, which lasted for two years and allowed him to rule by decree[4]. During this period, he launched a massive purge of state institutions, targeting not only those allegedly involved in the coup but also critics and opponents of his regime.

The government’s response to the coup attempt was disproportionate and indiscriminate. Approximately 80,000 people (Gülenists, as well as liberals, nationalists, Kemalists and anyone else who is not on Erdogan’s side) were incarcerated on suspicion of affiliation with the Gülen movement, which Erdogan accused of orchestrating the coup[3]. This crackdown extended far beyond those directly involved in the coup attempt, effectively becoming a witch hunt against any perceived opposition.

Economic Turmoil and Foreign Policy Challenges

Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies have not been limited to the political sphere. His unorthodox economic policies have led to high inflation rates and a significant depreciation of the Turkish lira[8]. This economic instability has further eroded public trust and exacerbated social tensions within the country.

Economic Mismanagement

Türkiye’s economy, once hailed as a success story, has been struggling under Erdogan’s leadership. In October 2022, inflation reached a staggering 85%, and while it has since decreased, it remained at a high 47% in November 2024[9]. This persistent high inflation has deterred foreign investment, with FDI levels falling well below both potential and policymakers’ hopes.

The economic challenges have put a strain on Erdogan’s ambitious goals. His vision of transforming Türkiye from a “regional economic centre into global economic powerhouse” and boosting it from the world’s sixteenth largest economy into the top 10 seems increasingly unrealistic[9]. The country’s Twelfth Development Plan (2024 to 2028) aims to improve its international stature and combat inflation while maintaining strong public finances, but achieving these goals will be an uphill battle given the current economic climate.

Foreign Policy Adventurism

Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies have also manifested in an increasingly aggressive and unpredictable foreign policy. His interventions in Syria and Libya, threats against Greece, and complex relationships with both Russia and the West have raised concerns about Türkiye’s role in regional stability[8].

In Syria, Erdogan’s military interventions have been driven by a desire to prevent the Syrian Kurdish community from establishing autonomous rule and to entrench Türkiye’s influence in the region[3]. These actions have prolonged the conflict and further destabilized an already volatile area.

Erdogan’s relationship with Russia has been particularly problematic for Türkiye’s NATO allies. The purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2019 raised serious concerns within NATO about intelligence sharing and technological compatibility[3]. This move, along with Erdogan’s cooperation with Russia in Syria, has strained Türkiye’s relationships with its Western allies.

The Manipulation of Identity Politics

Erdogan has skillfully used identity politics to consolidate his power and divide the opposition. His brand of conservative nationalism, infused with Islamic rhetoric, has appealed to a significant portion of the Turkish population while alienating secular and progressive segments of society.

Islamization of Turkish Politics

Erdogan has invested heavily in promoting his Islamic agenda, supporting anti-Western Islamist extremist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas[3]. He has used Islam as a political tool, building mosques and other Islamic theological institutions both within Türkiye and abroad. This approach has helped him maintain a strong base of support among conservative and religious voters.

The promotion of religious conservatism has gone hand in hand with a gradual erosion of Türkiye’s secular traditions. Erdogan has pushed for greater religious influence in education and public life, leading to concerns about the future of secularism in Türkiye.

Exploitation of Kurdish Issues

Erdogan’s approach to Türkiye’s Kurdish minority has been characterized by a mix of repression and strategic concessions. While his government has continued the decades-long conflict with the terrorist organization PKK, Erdogan has also shown a willingness to negotiate with Kurdish political representatives when it serves his interests.

In late 2024, rumors emerged of secretive deliberations between Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), its far-right nationalist ally MHP, and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DEM)[5]. These negotiations reportedly included discussions about the potential release of Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned founder of the PKK, and the possibility of granting some form of autonomy to Türkiye’s Kurds.

This apparent shift in policy towards the Kurds is likely motivated by political calculations rather than a genuine commitment to resolving the Kurdish issue. Erdogan’s willingness to negotiate with Kurdish representatives while simultaneously cracking down on Kurdish political activism demonstrates his opportunistic approach to minority rights.

International Response and Implications

The international community’s response to Türkiye’s democratic backsliding has been mixed and largely ineffective. The European Union, in particular, has been criticized for its “malign neglect” of Türkiye’s authoritarian turn, largely due to the refugee deal between the two parties[4].

EU Accession Process

The botched EU accession process has contributed significantly to Türkiye’s democratic regression. The lack of clear progress and mixed signals from EU member states have allowed Erdogan to portray the EU as an unreliable partner, further fueling nationalist sentiments within Türkiye.

The EU’s failure to effectively address Türkiye’s democratic decline has not only damaged its credibility but also weakened pro-democracy forces within Türkiye. As the prospect of EU membership has become increasingly remote, Erdogan has had less incentive to maintain democratic norms and institutions.

Regional Instability

Destabilizing regional developments, particularly in Syria, have played a role in Türkiye’s authoritarian turn. The arrival of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees, attacks in Turkish cities by the Islamic State (ISIS), and the collapse of the ceasefire with the PKK have all contributed to a climate of fear and insecurity that Erdogan has exploited to justify his authoritarian policies[6].

These external challenges have allowed Erdogan to frame his consolidation of power as necessary for national security, making it more difficult for both domestic and international actors to challenge his actions.

The Future of Turkish Democracy

As Türkiye approaches the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028, the future of its democracy hangs in the balance. Erdogan’s efforts to entrench his power and neutralize opposition forces have created significant obstacles to a return to genuine democratic governance.

Opposition Challenges

The fragmented nature of Türkiye’s opposition presents a significant challenge to unseating Erdogan. While there have been some successful instances of opposition cooperation, such as in the 2019 local elections where opposition candidates won mayoral races in Istanbul and Ankara, sustaining a united front against Erdogan’s well-organized political machine remains difficult.

The ongoing suppression of opposition voices, particularly the targeting of Kurdish politicians, further complicates efforts to mount an effective challenge to Erdogan’s rule. The ability of opposition parties to overcome these obstacles and present a credible alternative to Erdogan’s leadership will be crucial in determining Türkiye’s democratic future.

Economic Pressures

Türkiye’s economic challenges may prove to be a double-edged sword for Erdogan. On one hand, economic discontent could fuel opposition to his rule. On the other, economic instability might make voters more susceptible to populist rhetoric and less willing to risk political change.

The success or failure of Erdogan’s economic policies in the coming years, particularly in addressing high inflation and attracting foreign investment, will likely play a significant role in shaping public opinion and, by extension, the country’s political trajectory.

International Engagement

The role of the international community, particularly the EU and the United States, will be crucial in shaping Türkiye’s democratic future. A more assertive stance on democratic backsliding, coupled with clear incentives for democratic reforms, could help strengthen pro-democracy forces within Türkiye.

However, geopolitical considerations, such as Türkiye’s strategic importance as a NATO ally and its role in managing migration flows to Europe, may continue to complicate international responses to Erdogan’s authoritarian rule.

Bottom Line

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s transformation of Türkiye from a flawed but functioning democracy to an increasingly authoritarian state represents one of the most significant cases of democratic backsliding in recent years. Through a combination of constitutional changes, suppression of dissent, manipulation of identity politics, and exploitation of external threats, Erdogan has systematically dismantled the checks and balances that once constrained executive power in Türkiye.

The consequences of this democratic erosion are far-reaching, affecting not only Türkiye’s domestic politics but also its economy, foreign relations, and social fabric. The concentration of power in Erdogan’s hands has led to policy decisions that have destabilized the economy, strained international relationships, and exacerbated societal divisions.

As Türkiye moves forward, the resilience of its democratic institutions and the strength of its civil society will be put to the test. The ability of opposition forces to unite and present a viable alternative to Erdogan’s rule, coupled with sustained pressure from the international community, will be crucial in determining whether Türkiye can reverse its authoritarian trajectory and return to a path of democratic governance.

The story of Türkiye under Erdogan serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions and the need for constant vigilance in their defense. It also highlights the complex interplay between domestic politics, economic factors, and international relations in shaping a country’s democratic trajectory. As the world watches Tükiye’s ongoing struggle with authoritarianism, the lessons learned may prove invaluable for protecting and promoting democracy globally in the face of rising authoritarian tendencies.